World Chess Championship 2013 round 9: I correctly predicted Anand's aggressively opening choice but he blundered horribly again to lose

In my continuing coverage of the World Chess Championship between Anand and Carlsen, today I cover round nine, in which Anand finally went for the big win, but blundered horribly and lost instead.

The night before the game, five hours before it started, I tweeted:

It came to me in a dream: Anand playing d4 in the next round, then going for an f3, e4 Pawn storm against Carlsen #FWCM2013

I have to admit to being proud of myself for having correctly predicted the opening that both players would willingly enter in today’s game! I had been thinking about this even before the match, but apparently Anand didn’t pull out his weapon until just now. Today, I explain my reasoning.

Game and notes below:

My correct opening prediction

1 d4

I concluded weeks ago that Anand would have to play 1 d4 for the win against Carlsen, as he did against Kramnik in 2008 and Topalov in 2010. I know this is a topic for a post in itself, but I think 1 e4 is dead at an elite match level if Black is willing to play 1... e5 in response. Alternatively, even in his successful defense of his title against Gelfand in 2012, Anand’s 1 e4 was neutralized by Gelfand’s use of the Sicilian 1... c5.

Nimzo-Indian

I predicted that Carlsen would play the Nimzo-Indian/Queen’s Indian Defense opening complex in response to 1 d4. Very solid, dynamic opening choice for Black.

I believe the Queen’s Indian Defense is mostly dead at the elite level, thanks to computer-aided analysis of some of the most important lines that lead to forced draws. Therefore, for Anand to play for the big win would require accepting the Nimzo-Indian challenge, creating positional asymmetries.

White against the Nimzo-Indian

There are many ways to play White against the Nimzo-Indian. As White I have tried many of them. The question is, what is the most aggressive way to play against the Nimzo-Indian? I think the answer is clear: f3 aiming for an eventual e4 and King side attack, involving f4 and e5 and f5 trying to checkmate Black’s King!

Some years ago, a nice book by Yuri Yakovich came out, “Play the 4 f3 Nimzo-Indian” which covers the ideas behind this way of playing for White. There are, of course, reasons why this is not played so often at top levels. Basically, the plan is risky, because White risks getting a weak c3 Pawn, being underdeveloped, or overextended, while Black gets counterplay on the Queen side. But in a must-win situation, I expected Anand to pull out this opening variation as a weapon eventually.

He has done this before. In his 2008 match against Kramnik, he played against the Nimzo-Indian using this f3 variation in Round 2. Kramnik drew, but White had a good game.

Summary of the game

Carlsen characteristically avoided the most popular “main line” against the f3 Nimzo-Indian, and in fact even transposed into a line of the Saemisch Variation that for a long time, since Botvinnik’s famous winning games in it, had been considered bad for Black.

But we have computers now that correct a lot of old assumptions. As a result, Carlsen played the most aggressive counterattacking plan right off the bat, going straight for Queen side counterplay before White even began developing the King side! Both players proceeded completely thematically and predictably after that, launching Pawns forward on opposite sides of the board. The question was whether Anand could break through on the King side first.

Carlsen cold-bloodedly assumed not, and played aggressively with b3 creating a possibly dangerous passed Pawn, even as Anand prepared f6 trapping Carlsen’s King.

Probably objectively the position is defensible for Black. But Anand thought he saw a checkmate coming, and let Carlsen Queen the b Pawn while lifting his Rook up to deliver a checkmate threat. Alas, he completely missed that Qe1 stops the checkmate and White is dead lost, and had to resign. (It turns out that at the last moment, Anand could easily have forced a draw with Bf1.)

In this game, it is possible that if Anand had played a slower, less “objectively correct” line of attack, the game could have gotten interesting, in case Carlsen faltered. But unfortunately, we did not see that more interesting development of the game.

The state of the match

Carlsen has basically won the match. Carlsen already has 6 out of 12 points. He needs only one draw in the next 3 rounds in order to claim the title of FIDE World Chess Champion.

It’s up to Anand to continue doing the best he can regardless of the inevitable result. It will be tough, especially since he just blundered horrifically again in a position that should have been a draw.

The game

Move comment:
Event: FWCM 2013
Site: Chennai
Round: 9
Date: 2013.11.21
White: Anand, Viswanathan
Black: Carlsen, Magnus
Result: 0-1

Side to move: white

Last move: 1.  variations:
Next move: 1. d4  variations:

1. d4
 
Finally, as I've been predicting and hoping for during the whole match! e4 has not worked for Anand at all as White.
 
1... Nf6 2. c4 e6 3. Nc3 Bb4 4. f3
 
As I predicted well before the match! This is a risky but super-aggressive attempt to capture the center and launch a King side attack against Black with e4 or g4. Anand has played this before.
 
4... d5
 
The most "classical" response, not giving way in the center. There are other interesting alternatives.
 
5. a3 Bc3 6. bc3 c5 7. cd5 ed5
 
Interesting choice by Carlsen, but logical because it avoids any Anand preparation in the "main line" Nxd5 that, for example, Kramnik played against Anand in 2008. Now we have transposed into a Saemisch, which Botvinnik famously played brilliantly as White, but against poor defense by Black. Black has for now prevented e4 by White.
 
8. e3
 
White must begin King side development.
 
8... c4
 
A bold, committal approach by Carlsen, shutting in White's Bishop ( which had wanted to go to d3 aiming toward Black's King ) . This game is going to be wild. White will aim to checkmate Black on the King side, and Black will aim at White's weakened a3 and c3 Pawns to try to create a passed b or c Pawn to Queen.
 
9. Ne2 Nc6 10. g4
 
Risky but a consistent and time-honored plan in this opening. White wants to drive Black's Knight away eventually in order to be able to push e4. [10. Ng3 Looks safer but is not so safe. 10... h5 Black is better.]
 
10... O-O 11. Bg2 Na5
 
Heading straight to b3 to remove White's Bishop that defends the dark squares.
 
12. O-O Nb3 13. Ra2
 
Typical Rook lift in case the Rook may eventually get to the King side to support an attack. We see one advantage of Carlsen's early c4. In old games, White's Bishop got to d3, resulting in White's Rook being able to get to g2 eventually.
 
13... b5 14. Ng3 a5 15. g5 Ne8 16. e4 Nc1 17. Qc1
 
Totally logical and predictable play from both sides so far. Whose attack will win first? I would rather be White here, but progress is difficult because Black's King side is solid for now.
 
17... Ra6
 
Protecting the Rook in preparation for possible b4, but seems a bit slow. [17... Nc7 Seems least committal.]
 
18. e5
 
Next up is the f4 Pawn roller.
 
18... Nc7
 
Protecting the Rook in order to prepare b4.
 
19. f4
 
There's no turning back now. Black will be able to get in b4 no matter what.
 
19... b4 20. ab4 ab4 21. Ra6 Na6
 
Things are looking critical. Black has a passed b Pawn now. Is it dangerous?
 
22. f5
 
[22. cb4 Removing the b Pawn is safest but gives Black counterplay. 22... Nb4 Now Black's Knight gets back into the game and can hop to c6 to press against White's weak d4 Pawn.]
 
22... b3
 
Black must free up the Knight to go back to the King side for defense. Is there a mate for White or not? Carlsen clearly believes not. [22... bc3 Logical. 23. Qc3 Similar to the game, except Black does not have a menacing b Pawn.]
 
23. Qf4
 
Going straight for the mate, abandoning the Queen side.
 
23... Nc7 24. f6 g6 25. Qh4
 
Aiming for a Rook lift with Qh6, Rf4, Rh4, Qxh7 mate.
 
25... Ne8 26. Qh6 b2 27. Rf4
 
Does this work??
 
27... b1Q 28. Nf1??
 
Unbelievable blunder by Anand. Unbelievable. [28. Bf1 The only move, which causes a long forced variation. 28... Qd1 Black must sacrifice the Queen back. 29. Rh4 Qh5 30. Nh5 gh5 31. Rh5 Bf5 Black manages to avoid mate. 32. g6 Bg6 33. Rg5 White is a piece down still, but Black is tied up completely. 33... Nf6 Returning the piece. If Black does not do this, then no piece can move but the Queen anyway. (33... Qa5 34. Rg3 White simply protects everything. Looks like a dead draw from perpetual check.) 34. ef6 Qf6 35. Rd5 Material is equal again. Looks like a draw by perpetual check against White's King is coming.]
 
28... Qe1
 
There is no mate. White is dead lost. A very sad end to the game.
 
29. Rh4 Qh4 30. Qh4